January 10, 2006
mid-season guessing
I was talking to Fast Eddie about the Cuse's outlook for the season this past weekend, discussing the ins and outs of McNamara's leadership and Watkins' remarkable efforts to replicate the general properties of granite within his own hands, when he asked me The Question.
No, he didn't pop The Question - he just asked it.
"If you were to place a bet right now, what teams would you put down for the Final Four?"
Well, considering that Carolina Jay and I have already caused Fast Eddie to lose a chunk of his bankroll this year due to some of our sure-fire stone-cold locks becoming about as shaky as Terrence Roberts' free throw percentage, I had to put real-deal serious thought into my answer before I blurted one out and failed to realize I could be wrong until it was far too late (such ill-conceived remarks have recently included "The Trojans are a guarantee, man!" and "SU's pretty bad, but they couldn't possibly lose by more than 20 to the Seminoles - FSU can't score!").
So, after careful consideration and reviewing the various online rankings and predictions from all the ESPN experts, I've decided on four teams that I'm willing to take the heat for if they don't make it to the RCA Dome in April. Of course it's more difficult to determine the exact Final Four than it is to simply guess the eventual winner, since two or all of the four teams I forecast could end up playing one another in earlier rounds, but that's okay. I'll still feel pretty good if I'm able to correctly predict two of the teams, especially if I can guess the champ.
Before I get into it, though, there's one caveat: I'm not going to pick the Orange, but if they decide to play as a unified team and the bench players stop criticizing the Hall of Fame coaching, I won't be held responsible for neglecting them. If I were to pick them now it would be based entirely on personal bias and no self-respecting blogger would ever do something like that.
Anyways, after extensive research and a good deal of flip-flopping (Adam Morrison: could he perform like Carmelo, or is he just a Chest Rockwell wannabe? hmmm...) I've decided that it'll be very difficult to stay away from the favorites at this point in the season. The consensus Final Four picks among the experts are Duke, UConn, Villanova, and Michigan State - currently the #1, #25, #8, and #22 RPI-ranked teams in the country, respectively. Duke is the obvious choice for a champion and deserves to be the favorite, even if it did take a Sean Dockery half-court swish at the buzzer to win at home against #119 Virginia Tech. I suppose every team is entitled to a bad game or two - it's just that Duke still manages to win the games in which they play their worst.
Personally, I think Villanova (10-1) is just a tad overrated, if only because they rely so heavily on the 3 point shot. Once the Big East really gets started, I think it's going to be apparent that the Wildcats are severely lacking in inside presence. They start four guards and their tallest player is Jason Fraser at 6'9". Pittsnogle and The Mountaineers (possibly the name of my next band) were able to exploit this by beating them under the hoop and playing tough defense - 'Nova lost, even though they knocked down 15 threes at 58%. Guardplay can take you far in the tournament, but there's always going to be someone that just wants to beat you up. Villanova won't make it.
As for the other three, they're all serious contenders. Michigan State (12-4) has one of the best centers in the nation in Paul Davis and Maurice Ager's averaging over 20 ppg. Tom Izzo's a proven tournament coach, making the Spartans one of the most difficult teams to knock out. Unfortunately for them, though, they're going to end up with a lot of losses this year because of an extremely difficult schedule. This could serve as some good practice for March Madness, but I'm beginning to think the odds won't be with them because they're going to get a poor seeding. If I'm going to give Fast Eddie a good prediction I need to at least try to find a team that should be at least a 3 seed.
So, I'm going to stick with Duke (14-0) and UConn (13-1) to make it to the national semifinals while tossing aside the expert opinion to add the future Big Ten Champion Wisconsin Badgers (12-2) and some former Blue Devil victims in the Texas Longhorns (13-2). Wisconsin has become somewhat of a bandwagon team of late and they don't play as well on the road but I like the coach, Bo Ryan, and am always partial to schools that have a Duany in their history. As for Texas, they're still the second most talented team in the country, and after hitting that nasty speed bump against Duke they seem to be finding their stride again.
So, mark it down, y'all - Duke and UConn will play a rematch of the 1999 championship, this time with Coach K coming out on top. It's the easy pick, I know, but I just can't find anyone - aside from Maryland at home, of course - who can take out #1. At least it'll be fun to see Greg Paulus capture the title that's going to spark his legacy as the next great point guard from Duke.
Duke, UConn, Texas, Wisconsin. Some can't-miss picks from the guy who's never wrong. Usually.
