a sporting word

As promised, I've come today to share my supernatural powers of prediction with the few dozen of you who have managed to stick around during the Official OrangeJuice Leave of Absence that now seems to have erased all official knowledge of the blog from Syracuse.com (I like to think of myself as a young Aaron McGruder, taking excessive time off to work on other ultra-important projects... the only difference is that he makes a groundbreaking TV show and has interesting things to say on a national level, while I spend my non-blogging time evaluating the different variables that might make one HDTV superior to another in my current living space. Seriously. I spent months doing this.).

So, here it goes...

Like most other NCAA enthusiasts, I was very tempted to anoint the Florida Gators as our next champion - the first to repeat since Skinny Laettner did it with those pesky Blue Devils (a feat that Fat Laettner could never hope to achieve). However, upon further review of the Gators' resume, I realized that they are very susceptible to overconfidence and media hype. At the end of the regular season they lost 3 of 5, most likely due to the fact that they had already clinched the SEC regular season crown and were looking forward to defending their conference and NCAA tournament titles. This momentary lapse in performance is very useful - the Gators are heading into the tourney as the favorite to win it all, and they know it. As far as I can tell, they are bound to lose their focus midway through the brackets, probably as they look ahead to the Final Four. This is why I have them losing to Maryland (yes - the Turtle) in the Sweet Sixteen. Don't be surprised if it happens (and take note that their "impressive run through the SEC tournament" wasn't that impressive at all - they beat Georgia, Ole Miss, and Arkansas to win that one... not exactly your regular stretch of title contenders).

So - my pick out of the Midwest? Those fierce Wisconsin Badgers! Yes, I know about the injury to Brian Butch, but the word is that he might be able to come back and play by Sweet Sixteen weekend now. If that happens, they'll be the easy favorite to advance. They were also one of my picks last year, but they didn't quite live up to potential - I'm giving them another chance to pick it up.

The Maryland-over-Florida scenario is really the biggest upset I'm picking later in the tournament. The trendy pick is the Texas-beats-North Carolina, but I don't see that one happening. Kevin Durant is incredible, but the Longhorns tend to lose when they play well balanced teams that can score a lot - it makes it difficult for Durant's 40 points to dominate completely. Even though Hansbrough has that busted nose, the Tarheels are my pick out of the East. Also, don't believe the newly-massive Georgetown hype, either - they'll go down as soon as they see a defense that denies entry passes and an offense that can bury the three. Syracuse showed exactly how to beat them, and you can bet Roy Williams will know the tape of that game inside and out by the time they reach the Elite Eight.

Who's next? I'm going with the youngsters from Kansas to advance out of the west bracket - they're the most athletically gifted team in the field, and I really don't think Bill Self will allow them to lose early once again, as it could mean his job. I know they're another #1 seed and that's boring, but like I wrote yesterday, it seems the champ of this thing is going to be either Kansas or North Carolina. UCLA is a tough matchup for the Jayhawks, but I can see them running enough to break down the vaunted Bruin defense. Plus, my man Ken Pomeroy says Kansas has a 48% chance of reaching the Final Four. That seems pretty solid to me...

My favorite pick - even if it's slowly becoming the big "sleeper" of the tournament - is putting the Texas A&M Aggies into the Final Four out of the south. After seeing the way they got after Syracuse last year - all that hustle and scrappiness - I was really impressed with their chances in a tournament like this. Throw in Acie Law's ability to go unconscious in the final five minutes of a close game, and the Aggies have a great shot at upsetting Oden's group and winning the region.

The SportingWord's official Final Four predictions of 2007 are:

North Carolina over Texas A&M

Wisconsin over Kansas (experience beats youth in this one)

and finally...

North Carolina over Wisconsin to win it all. Score: 74-68.

Enjoy.

And, in case you're wondering, NC State is my pick in the Grand NIT. Make sure you're at the Dome tonight, though - $10 seats are too tough to pass up.

# posted by eric boye @ 5:48 PM 0 comments

Well, the Cuse isn't in the Big Dance, but that doesn't mean the OrangeJuice can't have a little fun with the brackets. I haven't decided on my picks for the Final Four just yet, though I have managed to settle on three of them at this point. I'll give more details tomorrow. As for right now, I feel an obligation to Syracuse fans to share a bit of an insider secret in the Final Four selection process.

Since the 2002 championship, the RPI has done a fairly bad job of predicting the NCAA Champion. The average RPI ranking of the Tournament Champ over the last five years has been somewhere between 7th and 8th - quite far from the predicted position of 1st. Last year, the #1 RPI ranked team at the end of the regular season was Duke, who ended up losing to LSU (RPI of 13) in the Sweet Sixteen. The winner of the tournament, Florida, was only the 15th best team in the country, according to the all-powerful Ratings Percentage Index.


So, what do we do when filling out a bracket - follow the rankings, placing statistics and strength of schedule ahead of matchups and momentum? Or, should we go with our gut instinct and pick the teams we feel have those intangible qualities that may add up to a Final Four appearance - the teams that we find endearing, with a storyline that Dick Enberg can pump up just before tipoff in Atlanta? Last year, the sentimental picks were LSU and George Mason, with a little more chalk coming in the form of Florida and UCLA - who's going to be there to take their place this time?

I believe I've found the man who can figure this out for us, or at least make it a little easier to predict. Ken Pomeroy runs his own college basketball statistics website, and seems to be making a run at Bill James status among the NCAA stat nuts - complete with a bit of contempt for those of us who prefer the traditional "system that rates teams on how 'good' their season has been" (Pomeroy suggests that we try Google or an ESPN opinion poll for that type of information).

It's to our benefit that Pomeroy has developed his own system of rating the teams, as he seems to have refined it to a point where he almost always predicts three of the teams that will reach the Final Four each year. If you've ever been in the standard office pool, you will know that having three of the four teams left at the end of the tournament will give you a significant advantage when it comes to collecting prize money.

The RPI may rank a team based on who they played and who they beat throughout the season, but Pomeroy's ratings go a bit deeper, taking into account margin of victory, strength of opposition, location of the game, and the amount of luck that affected the contest. He states that his rankings are designed to be purely predictive, assessing the likelihood of victory if that team were to play that same day.

Pomeroy's ratings have been consistently better than the RPI in predicting Tournament Success, and based on their history I can almost guarantee that at least two of his Top 4 this year will reach the Final Four (his current four are North Carolina, Kansas, Florida, and Ohio State...strangely, the top 4 seeds in the tournament, though that is uncommon. Syracuse is Pomeroy's #29). As I previously stated, the RPI seems to be a very poor predictor of Tournament Success - only once in the last five years has a team ranked in the Top 4 of the RPI won the NCAA Championship. Pomeroy, however, has had the eventual champion listed in his Top 4 in four of the last five tournaments, with the only exception being Syracuse in 2003, when he rated them #5 before the start of the tourney. I do not believe this is a simple coincidence.


For example:

In 2006 Pomeroy's top 4 teams, in order, were Florida (RPI 15!), Texas (RPI 8), UCLA (RPI 9), and UConn (RPI 3). Florida, UCLA, LSU, and George Mason made the Final Four (2 out of 4 correct), with Florida winning the championship. If it weren't for a notorious meltdown from UConn, assisting the cinderella run of George Mason, Pomeroy would've been 3 for 4.

In 2005 his top 4 teams were Illinois (2), North Carolina (6), Duke (4), and Michigan State (21!). Illinois, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Louisville made the Final Four (3 out of 4), with North Carolina winning the title.

In 2004 his top 4 teams were Duke (1), UConn (5), Oklahoma St. (6), and St. Joseph's (3). Duke, UConn, Oklahoma State, and Georgia Tech made the Final Four (3 out of 4) with UConn winning it.

In 2003 his top 4 teams were Pittsburgh (8), Kentucky (1), Arizona (2), and Kansas (6) - Syracuse (9) was Pomeroy's 5th. Kansas, Syracuse, Marquette, and Oklahoma made the Final Four (1 out of 4, though SU was 5th). SU beat Kansas in the final.

In 2002 his top 4 teams were Duke (4), Maryland (2), Kansas (1), and Oklahoma (5). Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Indiana (RPI 13 - Pomeroy had them at 7) reached the Final Four, (3 out of 4) with Maryland winning.

In every year but 2003, the National Championship went to a team that Pomeroy had as his 1st or 2nd best team in the country, despite lower RPI rankings. Not only was his system accurate enough to predict three of the programs to reach the Final Four in most years, but it could help determine which of those four would eventually finish on top. If we go with the Pomeroy Trend in 2007, either North Carolina or Kansas will win this year's NCAA Tournament - the two #1 seeds voted as Most Likely To Lose First by the ESPN.com readership. It won't be an upset, of course, but it seems most folks believe in those Florida Gators (more on them tomorrow).

# posted by eric boye @ 5:56 PM 0 comments

Well, my apologies to everyone - Syracuse was not considered a #1 seed for the grand NIT afterall. Nope, these Cusemen are now the 5th (or 8th?) best team not to be included in this year's 2007 NCAA Championship bracket, dropped by the NIT committee to a #2 seed so they can host the South Alabama Jaguars on Wednesday (The mighty Jaguars have now lost 4 of their last 5, including defeats to Florida International, Florida Atlantic, and Troy).

Am I wrong here? Was Syracuse really 39th on an at-large list built for 34? Is little Dougie - the Oklahoma St. Cowboy that left the "weak " Big East because he couldn't cut it at Notre Dame - the top analyst in the game? He was the only one who could point out all the reasons why the Orange didn't deserve a bid yesterday - maybe he had a valid point. True, he declared Syracuse a solid stove pipe lock as recent as last week during his ESPN.com online chat (tip courtesy of Adam from Voteprime) but perhaps that was just a momentary lapse in judgment - we've seen it happen before with other guys just like him, such as Tom Cruise or Brad Pitt, so maybe we should forgive him for the mistakes he made with his predictions...

Somehow, though, I just can't get to that point. I don't think I have enough of Dougie's contempt for Mr. Boeheim. Shame on me, I suppose, but I have to maintain that Syracuse absolutely belonged in that selection show. Also, unlike the Hall of Famer who must remain diplomatic, I am willing to name the teams that did not deserve to be anywhere near the NCAA's - we'll start the list small, perhaps only stretching to the few teams who clearly could not defeat the Orange in a seven-game series:

Arkansas - 12 seed, East Region

Record: 21-13, 7-9 in the SEC

RPI: 35 SOS: 10

Big Wins: Vanderbilt (47, twice)

Bad Losses: Auburn (114), South Carolina (110), Missouri (93), Mississippi St (64), Georgia (63)

Stanford - 11 seed, South Region

Record: 18-12, 10-8 in the Pac 10

RPI: 65 SOS: 32

Big Wins: UCLA (2), Oregon (21), Washington St (26), USC (40), Texas Tech (53)

Bad Losses: Santa Clara (99), California (82), Washington (81)

Purdue, 9 seed Midwest Region

Record: 21-11, 9-7 in the Big Ten

RPI: 44 SOS: 44

Big Wins: Michigan St (24), Indiana (28), Illinois (29), Virginia (55),

Bad Losses: Minnesota (190), Indiana St (139), Iowa (96)

Texas Tech, 10 seed East Region

Record: 21-12, 9-7 in the Big 12

RPI: 53 SOS: 39

Big Wins: Kansas (11), Texas A&M (17, twice), Arkansas (35)

Big Losses: Baylor (141), Nebraska (103), Oklahoma (102), Missouri (93), Stanford (65)

And now we compare those four winners to the Syracuse Orange:

Syracuse, 2 seed NIT South

Record: 22-10, 10-6 in the Big East

RPI: 50 SOS: 46

Big Wins: Georgetown (9), Villanova (19), Marquette (22)

Bad Losses: St. John's (133), Connecticut (111), Wichita St (100)

Obviously, Syracuse was badly hurt by the loss to UConn. If the Orange won in Storrs back on February 5th, my feeling is that the committee would have included them in the field. It's unfortunate, too, because no matter how bad the Huskies are they will always have a shot to beat the Cuse - Calhoun knows The Zone too well to lose to get swept by the Orangemen during any season. If UConn was the #1 team in the country again and SU lost to them three times instead of just once, the Cuse's RPI would have been in the mid-30's and they surely would have been playing for the championship, even at 20-12 (like Arkansas, who sucks, but gets in because they played a top 10 schedule. Who cares that they lost to five teams outside the top 60 - they played Florida twice!).

The worst of it is that we feel personally slighted by the committee's decision to omit the Orange. Our team deserves a shot at the Final Four - sure, they probably wouldn't have won more than a couple games, but they should at least be there to try. It's almost like to selection committee passed judgment on us as fans. We know they screwed up, losing to a few teams that didn't get in, but they also rallied and showed they can play with the best down the stretch. It's going to be monumentally disappointing to watch the games on CBS this weekend knowing that there's no 1st round action to get especially excited about, and it's even more depressing to think that the seniors - two time champs of the Big East conference - are now forced to play for a lesser title.

So, what do we do now?

Well, we can't allow ourselves to sit at home and wallow in the sadness that is the National Invitation Tournament. We can't urge our coach to reject a chance for his team to play ball again, just so we can say, "He sure showed them!" We can't boycott the game in the Dome because it's beneath us. We gotta be fans.

Go to the game Wednesday night - give the Orange something to play for. Even if right now you're thinking it isn't worth two hours of your time, you owe it to these players to support their run to The Garden. These Syracuse Orangemen don't want to be in a second-rate tournament anymore than you like seeing them there, but they're still going to get out on Jimmy B's Court and play. What's done is done. We get one more game at home with Demetris, Terrence, Mookie, and Matt - let's make it worthwhile.

# posted by eric boye @ 12:21 PM 0 comments

absolutely inexcuseable.

Stanford: 18-12, 6th place in the Pac Ten

Michigan State: 22-11, 7th place in the Big Ten

Texas Tech: 21-12, 5th place in the Big 12

Georgia Tech: 20-11, 7th place in the ACC

...all teams in the final 65. All teams deemed by the NCAA Tournament committee as being better than those Syracuse Orangemen. By the way, they finished 22-10 and at 5th place in the Big East. The 9th place team in the Big East? The Villanova Wildcats? They're a 9 seed (yes - they finished in 9th, after tiebreakers with West Virginia and DePaul).

I haven't had much to say this season, but this mistake is truly ridiculous. This team got robbed - these seniors got robbed. They give it their all down the stretch, winning 6 of 8 in a major conference and they get the great big reward of being a #1 seed in the Not In the Tourney bracket. Meanwhile, a team like Stanford goes 4-6 over their last 10 games and scoots in with an 11 seed, despite being ranked #65 in the almighty RPI (SU sits at #50).

Apparently, Syracuse has to win the Big East Tournament to give themselves a bid - forget the fact that they beat the likes of Georgetown, Villanova, and Marquette throughout the season, right? Who cares that Old Dominion (12 seed) lost to James Madison, Marist, and Hofstra - they went 1-0 against the Top 25!

At least Gottlieb gets to gloat.

# posted by eric boye @ 7:20 PM 0 comments