January 06, 2006
Where they are now is where they'll be in March.
A few weeks ago, Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com resumed his annual role as the top forecaster of NCAA Tournament seeding although most teams haven't even begun the intraconference portion of their schedule. Much like the November 1st arrival of Christmas decorations and promotions in Wal-Marts and Targets around the country, this early attention to an event still a long time away is both good and bad.
While the premature arrival of Lunardi's weekly Bracketology allows us to preview and ponder exciting tournament matchups, it also serves as baseline from which we can predict the eventual outcome of each team involved. The good part is that it's fun to check out, if only to see where SU could be playing and what their seed would look like. The bad part is that as of the 12/30 edition, the Cuse is set at a #10 seed, which means they would play the first round as an underdog, with a win giving them the great opportunity to play a #2 seed (a top-10 squad like Illinois or Gonzaga) in the round of 32.
That does not look good for the Orange. If Lunardi is correct - and he usually is come tourney time - Syracuse would be in a very poor position to win the championship if the season ended this week. Thankfully, it doesn't - there's still a lot of regular season left to play - but SU is facing an steep uphill battle to gain national respect and the easier route to the Final Four that would come with it.
With the non-conference portion completed, the schedule has suddenly become quite difficult. At this point, it looks like McNamara and the boys are going to be lucky to begin the Big East schedule at 3-3, considering the next six games are against USF (6-8), @Notre Dame (9-3), @Cincinnati (12-2), UConn (11-1) in the Dome, @Villanova (10-0), and @Pittsburgh (12-0). Syracuse figures to be an underdog in four of those games, forcing them to squeeze out an upset in order to get off to a .500 start. Who's it going to be, though? They could conceivably win the first three then lose the last three, but I'm starting to feel like Cincinnati will be too tough for the Cuse at home (the average final score during the Bearcats current 9 game win streak is 87-66. SU's is just 80-64 over the same span). If the Orange can outshoot Villanova they may actually have a chance there, as the Wildcats have relied primarily on three pointers and team speed to win their games. If Boeheim plays a quicker 3-guard lineup against them, I think the Cuse can match up pretty well with Jay Wright's Top 5 squad.
Actually, I feel that all of the games are winnable, but playing on other teams' courts so often will seriously hurt SU's chances. The only significant home game during this stretch is versus Connecticut and that one doesn't seem likely to result in victory, even though the Huskies were throttled at Marquette. UConn is simply too physical for Syracuse right now, and won't have any problem winning the rebounding margin or scoring big points in the paint. It's too bad, too, because the last thing I want to see is Josh Boone and Rudy Gay celebrating in the Carrier Dome. Ugh.
If they do manage an upset somewhere and a 3-3 Big East record after this run, it'll leave the Orange at 15-5 with 10 games to play (and very little momentum). My guess is that they'll finish the Big East season at 20-10 and somewhere near NCAA Tournament bubble. Even though they'll have played one of the toughest schedules in the country they'll still be on the outside looking in, if only because that's exactly where they are today. Instead of starting the Big East schedule as a Top 20 team like they usually do, they're around the Top 30. As with every year, the Orange's standing will rise and fall with every win and loss, only to end up in roughly the same spot they were in at the start of January.
Syracuse may have to pick up a couple of wins in the Big East tournament to solidify their place in March Madness, and even then they may be no better than a 7 seed. Still, when you look at what a #7 like West Virginia did last year (18-9 overall going into the Big East tourney, where they finished 2nd to SU), it may not be so bad to be put in that position. If a 3-point shooting team like the Mountaineers - or this year's Orange - gets hot at the right time, they become one of the great stories of the 2006 tournament, when everyone wonders where they came from and why players named Pittsnogle (or Devendorf, perhaps) weren't getting any attention back in January. I don't suppose that would be too bad, even if it invariably involves a last-second loss to a top team in the Elite Eight.
A few weeks ago, Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com resumed his annual role as the top forecaster of NCAA Tournament seeding although most teams haven't even begun the intraconference portion of their schedule. Much like the November 1st arrival of Christmas decorations and promotions in Wal-Marts and Targets around the country, this early attention to an event still a long time away is both good and bad.
While the premature arrival of Lunardi's weekly Bracketology allows us to preview and ponder exciting tournament matchups, it also serves as baseline from which we can predict the eventual outcome of each team involved. The good part is that it's fun to check out, if only to see where SU could be playing and what their seed would look like. The bad part is that as of the 12/30 edition, the Cuse is set at a #10 seed, which means they would play the first round as an underdog, with a win giving them the great opportunity to play a #2 seed (a top-10 squad like Illinois or Gonzaga) in the round of 32.
That does not look good for the Orange. If Lunardi is correct - and he usually is come tourney time - Syracuse would be in a very poor position to win the championship if the season ended this week. Thankfully, it doesn't - there's still a lot of regular season left to play - but SU is facing an steep uphill battle to gain national respect and the easier route to the Final Four that would come with it.
With the non-conference portion completed, the schedule has suddenly become quite difficult. At this point, it looks like McNamara and the boys are going to be lucky to begin the Big East schedule at 3-3, considering the next six games are against USF (6-8), @Notre Dame (9-3), @Cincinnati (12-2), UConn (11-1) in the Dome, @Villanova (10-0), and @Pittsburgh (12-0). Syracuse figures to be an underdog in four of those games, forcing them to squeeze out an upset in order to get off to a .500 start. Who's it going to be, though? They could conceivably win the first three then lose the last three, but I'm starting to feel like Cincinnati will be too tough for the Cuse at home (the average final score during the Bearcats current 9 game win streak is 87-66. SU's is just 80-64 over the same span). If the Orange can outshoot Villanova they may actually have a chance there, as the Wildcats have relied primarily on three pointers and team speed to win their games. If Boeheim plays a quicker 3-guard lineup against them, I think the Cuse can match up pretty well with Jay Wright's Top 5 squad.
Actually, I feel that all of the games are winnable, but playing on other teams' courts so often will seriously hurt SU's chances. The only significant home game during this stretch is versus Connecticut and that one doesn't seem likely to result in victory, even though the Huskies were throttled at Marquette. UConn is simply too physical for Syracuse right now, and won't have any problem winning the rebounding margin or scoring big points in the paint. It's too bad, too, because the last thing I want to see is Josh Boone and Rudy Gay celebrating in the Carrier Dome. Ugh.
If they do manage an upset somewhere and a 3-3 Big East record after this run, it'll leave the Orange at 15-5 with 10 games to play (and very little momentum). My guess is that they'll finish the Big East season at 20-10 and somewhere near NCAA Tournament bubble. Even though they'll have played one of the toughest schedules in the country they'll still be on the outside looking in, if only because that's exactly where they are today. Instead of starting the Big East schedule as a Top 20 team like they usually do, they're around the Top 30. As with every year, the Orange's standing will rise and fall with every win and loss, only to end up in roughly the same spot they were in at the start of January.
Syracuse may have to pick up a couple of wins in the Big East tournament to solidify their place in March Madness, and even then they may be no better than a 7 seed. Still, when you look at what a #7 like West Virginia did last year (18-9 overall going into the Big East tourney, where they finished 2nd to SU), it may not be so bad to be put in that position. If a 3-point shooting team like the Mountaineers - or this year's Orange - gets hot at the right time, they become one of the great stories of the 2006 tournament, when everyone wonders where they came from and why players named Pittsnogle (or Devendorf, perhaps) weren't getting any attention back in January. I don't suppose that would be too bad, even if it invariably involves a last-second loss to a top team in the Elite Eight.
