August 15, 2006
just checking in on those mvp's
so, David Ortiz is your 2006 AL MVP, eh?
After having a conversation with Uncle Mark and Baby Peter over some Dinosaur BBQ this past weekend at which time I instinctively gave the '06 MVP trophy to Papi, I decided to actually check the numbers, just to verify that he deserves it (which everyone else has already decided - he'll end up with the trophy even if he finishes the season 2 for 50 with no homers and 12 9th inning strikeouts). In reality, it seems the race is much tighter than I thought, especially now that it doesn't matter if you can catch a ball when it comes to getting MVP votes.
Reference Line: Runs Created, OPS, HR, RBI, R, BA, SB (listed in my personally-assigned order of importance)
David Ortiz: 103.8, 1.014, 41, 110, 86, .284, 1
Travis Hafner: 104.5, 1.068, 35, 104, 86, .303, 0
Manny Ramirez: 104.5, 1.060, 32, 93, 74, .323, 0
Jim Thome: 98.0, 1.046, 36, 89, 89, .299, 0
Derek Jeter: 91.9, .907, 10, 70, 80, .344, 26
Make your own decision, but I'm not so sure that it should just go to Ortiz without debate:
#1 if Manny was batting in front of Ortiz instead of behind him, you can bet he'd be leading the league in RsBI instead of the other way around, and would have scored another 15-20 runs (with a batting average about 40 points higher, no less, which could have allowed him to drive in 115 by now). Unfortunately, Ortiz's reputation creates a necessity for him to bat in front of Ramirez, just so Papi has more opportunities to hit strikes.
#2 Since it doesn't matter that Ortiz can't play the field, Hafner and Thome can be included in the discussion, where they would have been left out just two years ago. Hafner is putting together a season that's on par (if not better, actually) than Mr. Papi's, and he may break Donnie Baseball's grand slam record to boot, but nobody really cares because he plays in Cleveland. Thome's 89 runs is 2nd in the league, despite being slower than Posada and having 78 less plate appearances than the league leader, Grady Sizemore, who's scored 96 times. Sure, this is a product of a potent lineup that responds to his leadership, but it also shows that Thome's got some smarts on the basepaths.
#3 I'm starting to think the idea that a DH has a tougher time hitting than a position player is bogus. If anything, the top DH's of the past few years have proven that they can hit just fine when they're not worrying about their fielding. Thome, Ortiz, and Hafner are the only players in the league with 325 ABs at the DH position, and all three are in the Top 5 for OPS (Manny and Jermaine Dye rounding it out, with Giambi in 6th, who DH's about half the time). Perhaps the Sabermetricians should begin working on a stat that can remove the inherent benefits of resting on the bench for 90% of a ballgame instead of the originally-intended 50%, allowing us to judge the bench potatoes in the same manner as the rest of the league.
#4 I only included Derek to show that he won't be winning the award this year despite the recent publicity attempting to throw him in the race. While his batting average and baserunning is far better than the others' (and fielding, though who cares that his .980 fielding percentage is 3rd best among AL shortstops?) he doesn't contribute as much on paper to his team's run-scoring. Yes, he is the only captain on the list and he's the only one on a first-place team, but he doesn't really have a chance to win this one.
At the same time, though, if Jeter ends up with 20 HR and 110 RBI he could be closer than I think (his career highs are 24 and 102 in '99)... The Captain's actually started trying to hit homeruns now that he's joined the race - realizing that those numbers weigh heavily in the voters' minds - and he may finish much stronger in those categories, which could justify a legitimate spot on the ballot.
#5 A-Rod deserved it last year, hands down. So there.
