March 14, 2007
get ready to win that cash!
As promised, I've come today to share my supernatural powers of prediction with the few dozen of you who have managed to stick around during the Official OrangeJuice Leave of Absence that now seems to have erased all official knowledge of the blog from Syracuse.com (I like to think of myself as a young Aaron McGruder, taking excessive time off to work on other ultra-important projects... the only difference is that he makes a groundbreaking TV show and has interesting things to say on a national level, while I spend my non-blogging time evaluating the different variables that might make one HDTV superior to another in my current living space. Seriously. I spent months doing this.).
So, here it goes...
Like most other NCAA enthusiasts, I was very tempted to anoint the Florida Gators as our next champion - the first to repeat since Skinny Laettner did it with those pesky Blue Devils (a feat that Fat Laettner could never hope to achieve). However, upon further review of the Gators' resume, I realized that they are very susceptible to overconfidence and media hype. At the end of the regular season they lost 3 of 5, most likely due to the fact that they had already clinched the SEC regular season crown and were looking forward to defending their conference and NCAA tournament titles. This momentary lapse in performance is very useful - the Gators are heading into the tourney as the favorite to win it all, and they know it. As far as I can tell, they are bound to lose their focus midway through the brackets, probably as they look ahead to the Final Four. This is why I have them losing to Maryland (yes - the Turtle) in the Sweet Sixteen. Don't be surprised if it happens (and take note that their "impressive run through the SEC tournament" wasn't that impressive at all - they beat Georgia, Ole Miss, and Arkansas to win that one... not exactly your regular stretch of title contenders).
So - my pick out of the Midwest? Those fierce Wisconsin Badgers! Yes, I know about the injury to Brian Butch, but the word is that he might be able to come back and play by Sweet Sixteen weekend now. If that happens, they'll be the easy favorite to advance. They were also one of my picks last year, but they didn't quite live up to potential - I'm giving them another chance to pick it up.
The Maryland-over-Florida scenario is really the biggest upset I'm picking later in the tournament. The trendy pick is the Texas-beats-North Carolina, but I don't see that one happening. Kevin Durant is incredible, but the Longhorns tend to lose when they play well balanced teams that can score a lot - it makes it difficult for Durant's 40 points to dominate completely. Even though Hansbrough has that busted nose, the Tarheels are my pick out of the East. Also, don't believe the newly-massive Georgetown hype, either - they'll go down as soon as they see a defense that denies entry passes and an offense that can bury the three. Syracuse showed exactly how to beat them, and you can bet Roy Williams will know the tape of that game inside and out by the time they reach the Elite Eight.
Who's next? I'm going with the youngsters from Kansas to advance out of the west bracket - they're the most athletically gifted team in the field, and I really don't think Bill Self will allow them to lose early once again, as it could mean his job. I know they're another #1 seed and that's boring, but like I wrote yesterday, it seems the champ of this thing is going to be either Kansas or North Carolina. UCLA is a tough matchup for the Jayhawks, but I can see them running enough to break down the vaunted Bruin defense. Plus, my man Ken Pomeroy says Kansas has a 48% chance of reaching the Final Four. That seems pretty solid to me...
My favorite pick - even if it's slowly becoming the big "sleeper" of the tournament - is putting the Texas A&M Aggies into the Final Four out of the south. After seeing the way they got after Syracuse last year - all that hustle and scrappiness - I was really impressed with their chances in a tournament like this. Throw in Acie Law's ability to go unconscious in the final five minutes of a close game, and the Aggies have a great shot at upsetting Oden's group and winning the region.
The SportingWord's official Final Four predictions of 2007 are:
North Carolina over Texas A&M
Wisconsin over Kansas (experience beats youth in this one)
and finally...
North Carolina over Wisconsin to win it all. Score: 74-68.
Enjoy.
And, in case you're wondering, NC State is my pick in the Grand NIT. Make sure you're at the Dome tonight, though - $10 seats are too tough to pass up.
