March 14, 2007
get ready to win that cash!
As promised, I've come today to share my supernatural powers of prediction with the few dozen of you who have managed to stick around during the Official OrangeJuice Leave of Absence that now seems to have erased all official knowledge of the blog from Syracuse.com (I like to think of myself as a young Aaron McGruder, taking excessive time off to work on other ultra-important projects... the only difference is that he makes a groundbreaking TV show and has interesting things to say on a national level, while I spend my non-blogging time evaluating the different variables that might make one HDTV superior to another in my current living space. Seriously. I spent months doing this.).
So, here it goes...
Like most other NCAA enthusiasts, I was very tempted to anoint the Florida Gators as our next champion - the first to repeat since Skinny Laettner did it with those pesky Blue Devils (a feat that Fat Laettner could never hope to achieve). However, upon further review of the Gators' resume, I realized that they are very susceptible to overconfidence and media hype. At the end of the regular season they lost 3 of 5, most likely due to the fact that they had already clinched the SEC regular season crown and were looking forward to defending their conference and NCAA tournament titles. This momentary lapse in performance is very useful - the Gators are heading into the tourney as the favorite to win it all, and they know it. As far as I can tell, they are bound to lose their focus midway through the brackets, probably as they look ahead to the Final Four. This is why I have them losing to Maryland (yes - the Turtle) in the Sweet Sixteen. Don't be surprised if it happens (and take note that their "impressive run through the SEC tournament" wasn't that impressive at all - they beat Georgia, Ole Miss, and Arkansas to win that one... not exactly your regular stretch of title contenders).
So - my pick out of the Midwest? Those fierce Wisconsin Badgers! Yes, I know about the injury to Brian Butch, but the word is that he might be able to come back and play by Sweet Sixteen weekend now. If that happens, they'll be the easy favorite to advance. They were also one of my picks last year, but they didn't quite live up to potential - I'm giving them another chance to pick it up.
The Maryland-over-Florida scenario is really the biggest upset I'm picking later in the tournament. The trendy pick is the Texas-beats-North Carolina, but I don't see that one happening. Kevin Durant is incredible, but the Longhorns tend to lose when they play well balanced teams that can score a lot - it makes it difficult for Durant's 40 points to dominate completely. Even though Hansbrough has that busted nose, the Tarheels are my pick out of the East. Also, don't believe the newly-massive Georgetown hype, either - they'll go down as soon as they see a defense that denies entry passes and an offense that can bury the three. Syracuse showed exactly how to beat them, and you can bet Roy Williams will know the tape of that game inside and out by the time they reach the Elite Eight.
Who's next? I'm going with the youngsters from Kansas to advance out of the west bracket - they're the most athletically gifted team in the field, and I really don't think Bill Self will allow them to lose early once again, as it could mean his job. I know they're another #1 seed and that's boring, but like I wrote yesterday, it seems the champ of this thing is going to be either Kansas or North Carolina. UCLA is a tough matchup for the Jayhawks, but I can see them running enough to break down the vaunted Bruin defense. Plus, my man Ken Pomeroy says Kansas has a 48% chance of reaching the Final Four. That seems pretty solid to me...
My favorite pick - even if it's slowly becoming the big "sleeper" of the tournament - is putting the Texas A&M Aggies into the Final Four out of the south. After seeing the way they got after Syracuse last year - all that hustle and scrappiness - I was really impressed with their chances in a tournament like this. Throw in Acie Law's ability to go unconscious in the final five minutes of a close game, and the Aggies have a great shot at upsetting Oden's group and winning the region.
The SportingWord's official Final Four predictions of 2007 are:
North Carolina over Texas A&M
Wisconsin over Kansas (experience beats youth in this one)
and finally...
North Carolina over Wisconsin to win it all. Score: 74-68.
Enjoy.
And, in case you're wondering, NC State is my pick in the Grand NIT. Make sure you're at the Dome tonight, though - $10 seats are too tough to pass up.
March 13, 2007
a better rating?
Well, the Cuse isn't in the Big Dance, but that doesn't mean the OrangeJuice can't have a little fun with the brackets. I haven't decided on my picks for the Final Four just yet, though I have managed to settle on three of them at this point. I'll give more details tomorrow. As for right now, I feel an obligation to Syracuse fans to share a bit of an insider secret in the Final Four selection process.
Since the 2002 championship, the RPI has done a fairly bad job of predicting the NCAA Champion. The average RPI ranking of the Tournament Champ over the last five years has been somewhere between 7th and 8th - quite far from the predicted position of 1st. Last year, the #1 RPI ranked team at the end of the regular season was Duke, who ended up losing to LSU (RPI of 13) in the Sweet Sixteen. The winner of the tournament, Florida, was only the 15th best team in the country, according to the all-powerful Ratings Percentage Index.
So, what do we do when filling out a bracket - follow the rankings, placing statistics and strength of schedule ahead of matchups and momentum? Or, should we go with our gut instinct and pick the teams we feel have those intangible qualities that may add up to a Final Four appearance - the teams that we find endearing, with a storyline that Dick Enberg can pump up just before tipoff in Atlanta? Last year, the sentimental picks were LSU and George Mason, with a little more chalk coming in the form of Florida and UCLA - who's going to be there to take their place this time?
I believe I've found the man who can figure this out for us, or at least make it a little easier to predict. Ken Pomeroy runs his own college basketball statistics website, and seems to be making a run at Bill James status among the NCAA stat nuts - complete with a bit of contempt for those of us who prefer the traditional "system that rates teams on how 'good' their season has been" (Pomeroy suggests that we try Google or an ESPN opinion poll for that type of information).
It's to our benefit that Pomeroy has developed his own system of rating the teams, as he seems to have refined it to a point where he almost always predicts three of the teams that will reach the Final Four each year. If you've ever been in the standard office pool, you will know that having three of the four teams left at the end of the tournament will give you a significant advantage when it comes to collecting prize money.
The RPI may rank a team based on who they played and who they beat throughout the season, but Pomeroy's ratings go a bit deeper, taking into account margin of victory, strength of opposition, location of the game, and the amount of luck that affected the contest. He states that his rankings are designed to be purely predictive, assessing the likelihood of victory if that team were to play that same day.
Pomeroy's ratings have been consistently better than the RPI in predicting Tournament Success, and based on their history I can almost guarantee that at least two of his Top 4 this year will reach the Final Four (his current four are North Carolina, Kansas, Florida, and Ohio State...strangely, the top 4 seeds in the tournament, though that is uncommon. Syracuse is Pomeroy's #29). As I previously stated, the RPI seems to be a very poor predictor of Tournament Success - only once in the last five years has a team ranked in the Top 4 of the RPI won the NCAA Championship. Pomeroy, however, has had the eventual champion listed in his Top 4 in four of the last five tournaments, with the only exception being Syracuse in 2003, when he rated them #5 before the start of the tourney. I do not believe this is a simple coincidence.
For example:
In 2006 Pomeroy's top 4 teams, in order, were Florida (RPI 15!), Texas (RPI 8), UCLA (RPI 9), and UConn (RPI 3). Florida, UCLA, LSU, and George Mason made the Final Four (2 out of 4 correct), with Florida winning the championship. If it weren't for a notorious meltdown from UConn, assisting the cinderella run of George Mason, Pomeroy would've been 3 for 4.
In 2005 his top 4 teams were Illinois (2), North Carolina (6), Duke (4), and Michigan State (21!). Illinois, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Louisville made the Final Four (3 out of 4), with North Carolina winning the title.
In 2004 his top 4 teams were Duke (1), UConn (5), Oklahoma St. (6), and St. Joseph's (3). Duke, UConn, Oklahoma State, and Georgia Tech made the Final Four (3 out of 4) with UConn winning it.
In 2003 his top 4 teams were Pittsburgh (8), Kentucky (1), Arizona (2), and Kansas (6) - Syracuse (9) was Pomeroy's 5th. Kansas, Syracuse, Marquette, and Oklahoma made the Final Four (1 out of 4, though SU was 5th). SU beat Kansas in the final.
In 2002 his top 4 teams were Duke (4), Maryland (2), Kansas (1), and Oklahoma (5). Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Indiana (RPI 13 - Pomeroy had them at 7) reached the Final Four, (3 out of 4) with Maryland winning.
In every year but 2003, the National Championship went to a team that Pomeroy had as his 1st or 2nd best team in the country, despite lower RPI rankings. Not only was his system accurate enough to predict three of the programs to reach the Final Four in most years, but it could help determine which of those four would eventually finish on top. If we go with the Pomeroy Trend in 2007, either North Carolina or Kansas will win this year's NCAA Tournament - the two #1 seeds voted as Most Likely To Lose First by the ESPN.com readership. It won't be an upset, of course, but it seems most folks believe in those Florida Gators (more on them tomorrow).
I won't be using all of Pomeroy's ratings when making my picks, but it helps to have him around.
March 12, 2007
the day after
Well, my apologies to everyone - Syracuse was not considered a #1 seed for the grand NIT afterall. Nope, these Cusemen are now the 5th (or 8th?) best team not to be included in this year's 2007 NCAA Championship bracket, dropped by the NIT committee to a #2 seed so they can host the South Alabama Jaguars on Wednesday (The mighty Jaguars have now lost 4 of their last 5, including defeats to Florida International, Florida Atlantic, and Troy).
Am I wrong here? Was Syracuse really 39th on an at-large list built for 34? Is little Dougie - the Oklahoma St. Cowboy that left the "weak " Big East because he couldn't cut it at Notre Dame - the top analyst in the game? He was the only one who could point out all the reasons why the Orange didn't deserve a bid yesterday - maybe he had a valid point. True, he declared Syracuse a solid stove pipe lock as recent as last week during his ESPN.com online chat (tip courtesy of Adam from Voteprime) but perhaps that was just a momentary lapse in judgment - we've seen it happen before with other guys just like him, such as Tom Cruise or Brad Pitt, so maybe we should forgive him for the mistakes he made with his predictions...
Somehow, though, I just can't get to that point. I don't think I have enough of Dougie's contempt for Mr. Boeheim. Shame on me, I suppose, but I have to maintain that Syracuse absolutely belonged in that selection show. Also, unlike the Hall of Famer who must remain diplomatic, I am willing to name the teams that did not deserve to be anywhere near the NCAA's - we'll start the list small, perhaps only stretching to the few teams who clearly could not defeat the Orange in a seven-game series:
Arkansas - 12 seed, East Region
Record: 21-13, 7-9 in the SEC
RPI: 35 SOS: 10
Big Wins: Vanderbilt (47, twice)
Bad Losses: Auburn (114), South Carolina (110), Missouri (93), Mississippi St (64), Georgia (63)
Stanford - 11 seed, South Region
Record: 18-12, 10-8 in the Pac 10
RPI: 65 SOS: 32
Big Wins: UCLA (2), Oregon (21), Washington St (26), USC (40), Texas Tech (53)
Bad Losses: Santa Clara (99), California (82), Washington (81)
Purdue, 9 seed Midwest Region
Record: 21-11, 9-7 in the Big Ten
RPI: 44 SOS: 44
Big Wins: Michigan St (24), Indiana (28), Illinois (29), Virginia (55),
Bad Losses: Minnesota (190), Indiana St (139), Iowa (96)
Texas Tech, 10 seed East Region
Record: 21-12, 9-7 in the Big 12
RPI: 53 SOS: 39
Big Wins: Kansas (11), Texas A&M (17, twice), Arkansas (35)
Big Losses: Baylor (141), Nebraska (103), Oklahoma (102), Missouri (93), Stanford (65)
And now we compare those four winners to the Syracuse Orange:
Syracuse, 2 seed NIT South
Record: 22-10, 10-6 in the Big East
RPI: 50 SOS: 46
Big Wins: Georgetown (9), Villanova (19), Marquette (22)
Bad Losses: St. John's (133), Connecticut (111), Wichita St (100)
Obviously, Syracuse was badly hurt by the loss to UConn. If the Orange won in Storrs back on February 5th, my feeling is that the committee would have included them in the field. It's unfortunate, too, because no matter how bad the Huskies are they will always have a shot to beat the Cuse - Calhoun knows The Zone too well to lose to get swept by the Orangemen during any season. If UConn was the #1 team in the country again and SU lost to them three times instead of just once, the Cuse's RPI would have been in the mid-30's and they surely would have been playing for the championship, even at 20-12 (like Arkansas, who sucks, but gets in because they played a top 10 schedule. Who cares that they lost to five teams outside the top 60 - they played Florida twice!).
The worst of it is that we feel personally slighted by the committee's decision to omit the Orange. Our team deserves a shot at the Final Four - sure, they probably wouldn't have won more than a couple games, but they should at least be there to try. It's almost like to selection committee passed judgment on us as fans. We know they screwed up, losing to a few teams that didn't get in, but they also rallied and showed they can play with the best down the stretch. It's going to be monumentally disappointing to watch the games on CBS this weekend knowing that there's no 1st round action to get especially excited about, and it's even more depressing to think that the seniors - two time champs of the Big East conference - are now forced to play for a lesser title.
So, what do we do now?
Well, we can't allow ourselves to sit at home and wallow in the sadness that is the National Invitation Tournament. We can't urge our coach to reject a chance for his team to play ball again, just so we can say, "He sure showed them!" We can't boycott the game in the Dome because it's beneath us. We gotta be fans.
Go to the game Wednesday night - give the Orange something to play for. Even if right now you're thinking it isn't worth two hours of your time, you owe it to these players to support their run to The Garden. These Syracuse Orangemen don't want to be in a second-rate tournament anymore than you like seeing them there, but they're still going to get out on Jimmy B's Court and play. What's done is done. We get one more game at home with Demetris, Terrence, Mookie, and Matt - let's make it worthwhile.
Let's go cuse.March 11, 2007
not. in.
absolutely inexcuseable.
Stanford: 18-12, 6th place in the Pac Ten
Michigan State: 22-11, 7th place in the Big Ten
Texas Tech: 21-12, 5th place in the Big 12
Georgia Tech: 20-11, 7th place in the ACC
...all teams in the final 65. All teams deemed by the NCAA Tournament committee as being better than those Syracuse Orangemen. By the way, they finished 22-10 and at 5th place in the Big East. The 9th place team in the Big East? The Villanova Wildcats? They're a 9 seed (yes - they finished in 9th, after tiebreakers with West Virginia and DePaul).
I haven't had much to say this season, but this mistake is truly ridiculous. This team got robbed - these seniors got robbed. They give it their all down the stretch, winning 6 of 8 in a major conference and they get the great big reward of being a #1 seed in the Not In the Tourney bracket. Meanwhile, a team like Stanford goes 4-6 over their last 10 games and scoots in with an 11 seed, despite being ranked #65 in the almighty RPI (SU sits at #50).
Apparently, Syracuse has to win the Big East Tournament to give themselves a bid - forget the fact that they beat the likes of Georgetown, Villanova, and Marquette throughout the season, right? Who cares that Old Dominion (12 seed) lost to James Madison, Marist, and Hofstra - they went 1-0 against the Top 25!
At least Gottlieb gets to gloat.
January 18, 2007
Syracuse 77, Cincinnati 76
So can anyone explain to me what just happened?
There I was at The Dome, enjoying a very easygoing sports evening with my dad, watching our team pummel a clearly inferior Big East squad, and feeling generally great about being a Cuse fan. After 12 minutes of play the Cuse were up 19 points, and my dad and I were feeling confident enough to say things like, "Cincinnati can't possibly be this bad..." and "I wonder when DiLiegro will get his minutes..." It was a fun night at the homecourt, and we were thoroughly enjoying the blowout victory.
Then, as if to reaffirm our ideas of the basketball situation, Coach Boeheim orders the players to begin working on their man-to-man defense, adding a little full-court press to keep the game interesting. It was almost as if the Orange had entered Scrimmage Mode, using the time to prepare for more difficult competition, when the press might be needed. After all, Jimmy B. didn't want to miss the opportunity to teach - he could work on his team's defense at game speed without any repercussions in the loss column. Then, as if on cue, Cincinnati reawakened and began to hit shots - five of their last eight before the buzzer, in fact, including four threeballs. Still, the Orange kept on running, and Nichols closed the half with five straight points to keep the margin at a very respectable 14.
As I read the halftime stats and listened to the new-and-improved Toshiba Dance Team's latest remix, I marveled at Syracuse's overwhelming supremacy in a game that should have been much closer. Sure, Cincinnati wasn't the best of the Big East coming into the Carrier Dome this year, but they couldn't really be as bad as their opening act had indicated. The Bearcats looked utterly confused on offense, often just tossing the ball back and forth outside the zone, perplexed as to how to move it inside to challenge Watkins and Roberts. Even when Cincy did manage to get it past the arc, the SU post men were ready for the challenge - Watkins spent most of his first half minutes amassing several of his 8 monstrous blocks.
At the other end of the floor Syracuse was confident and quick, often pushing the ball in transition to get easy hoops or running a play to the open man and knocking down practically every jumpshot they attempted (61% for the half, 6 for 11 from 3-point range). It seemed they knew exactly what they were getting from Cincinnati, and they had no problem exploiting every weakness.
This game was so out of hand before halftime that the scoreboard operator was repeatedly pleading with the fans to "Get Up" and "Make Some Noise" by the 6:00 mark, just so the players on the floor weren't distracted by Fast Eddie's Yo Momma jokes, who was sharing his "Greatest Hits" collection with the folks in Section 311 (his comedy album drops this summer).
Seriously. If you weren't there, believe me when I tell you this game was completely. over.
The win over the Bearcats was so certain that the hometown crowd didn't even realize that the visitors had fought their way back to a 67-68 deficit and Syracuse had just finished almost four minutes of zero-point basketball. Up to that point most fans were still discussing their plans for the weekend or which SU player would be most fun to date - anything but the actual action on the court. Meanwhile, the Bearcats had scored 10 straight and were looking to take the lead as soon as possible (which they eventually would, with just 1:12 to play in the game). Until that moment, when the oppostion was ready to take over the game, the Dome had been quiet enough for me to hear Boeheim shout instructions to J. Wright about passing to the correct teammate - something I can't ever recall experiencing from my usual spot in the stands, despite the Coach's impressive projection abilities.
Thankfully, the fans woke up and cheered loud enough to make it an exciting experience for everyone. In fact, it became so much more electric in The Loud House - whatever that is - that after Devendorf hit his free throws I nearly felt like celebrating on the court (he had no doubts about his shots - the kid was actually waving his arms at mid-court to pump up the crowd just seconds before stepping to the line and draining the tying bucket. Who does that? Devo. That's who).
I had gone from pleasantly bored to extremely concerned in a matter of a few minutes, and it had a strange effect on my disposition towards those Bearcats. They were suddenly tough to beat, and the Orange had just accomplished a great character-building victory. The place went nuts, and everyone went home talking about what a great game they had just seen.
Of course, it was only Cincinnati - a lowly bunch who caused me to consider whether Boeheim should have substituted Otto for Watkins in the first half to entertain me - but still, it made for a worthwhile evening in the cold.
January 07, 2007
Panthers Passed, Eagles Ahead
How do I know they're so good? Why am I suddenly reserving a spot in my Final Four bracket for the soon-to-be Big East regular season champs? Because on Thursday night I saw a very talented Syracuse Orange team play their best form of basketball for 20 full minutes - executing a Hall of Famer's game plan (run, run, run - beat those ultra-slow Panther big men down the floor before they can set their defense...then run some more) and sharing the ball in order to create a balanced attack - only to find themselves leading the visitors by a single point at the half, 34-33.
Fifteen minutes later the Panthers came out of their locker room and lit up the Syracuse defense for about two minutes, scoring seven straight to take a six point lead. The Cuse never fully recovered.
The Orange came so very close Thursday night - there were times during the first half when I think they actually had the home crowd convinced they'd be rushing the floor to celebrate (without the students) before the digital thermometoclock ticked 9:30. It didn't actually happen, of course, but for a few moments it definitely seemed more than plausible. Devendorf was getting minutes again and on top of his game, and though J. Wright seemed to be moving at a different speed than his teammates (he was somewhere near Mach 3, - everyone else had yet to break the sound barrier) the offense was clicking pretty efficiently.
They held Aaron Gray in check, swarmed to trap when they could, and hustled in transition for easy buckets - all signs that SU was prepared to stay with Pitt through the entire contest. Watkins, whose performance was sure to affect the outcome, played his heart out for the full forty and stayed out of foul trouble against a player who is assumed to be a much bigger talent - he also continued to improve his contributions, scoring 11 and picking up 4 offensive boards (he did drop one low bounce-pass from Rautins, though). Almost everyone had a good night, and they actually kept it much closer than the final score indicated - all they needed was one more push to get them over the second half slump.
It probably would've helped if the Panther guards didn't catch fire in the second half, but I suppose not every hex and voodoo doll can be effective. Really, the more I think about Ronald Ramon, the more I dislike the guy. By looking at the box score you would think he had a below-average game (4 of 8, 1 for 5 from three) but if you watched the last fifteen minutes you know that his lone threeball came when Pitt desperately needed to squash a mounting SU comeback. He hadn't hit anything all night, then he throws an absolute dagger just when Syracuse can't afford to give up those three points. Though he's basically a one dimensional player, Ramon kills Syracuse every single time. Man, I hate that guy.
I was happy with SU's performance through the majority of that game - they fell apart somewhat in the second half after Roberts caught a cheap shot with his lip, but overall I think they played at a much higher level than they have during the last month. If you put it in perspective, a semi-average shooting night from Nichols would've given the Cuse a legitimate chance to win in the second half. Sometimes it's hard to remember just how you feel about a loss until a few days have passed.
So, despite enduring the 8-point loss to Pittsburgh in their own house, I think Syracuse has a great chance to pick up a big win over Marquette tonight. I truly believe in Paul Harris' abilities as a defender, and if Dominic James begins to take over (as he could do so with ease) Mr. Harris will be able to stay with him man-to-man. The rest of the defense would suffer, but Marquette is hardly the same team without their All-America candidate scoring 20 every night. Heck, those "#15" Golden Eagles just lost big to lowly Providence, when James could only manage 11 points on 3 for 11 shooting.
Defense will win this game for Syracuse - it's key to limit James' shot selection, so if he gets hot from outside Jimmy B. may have to switch out of the zone and rely on the FNP to shut him down. Gametime's at 8pm our time, so be ready to watch as soon as football's Eagles and the Giants decide who's heading to New Orleans.
January 04, 2007
the real season begins
As of this evening, the Orangemen stand somewhere around 66th place on The Mystic Joe's sheet, just outside of the Tourney's Lucky 65. Granted, they deserve such lowly status when one considers the three losses-that-broke-my-heart in the non-conference schedule and an apparent inability to retain the same starting lineup through the first 14 games, but there will never be a day that I won't be immensely depressed over the prospect of SU hoopsmen finishing a season by hosting NIT contests against the likes of Drexel or Holy Cross, who would likely win, considering recent Dome history.
So, what's going on with the Orange that makes them unworthy of their annual single-digit seeding? The team has certainly had moments when it looks like it could beat Florida or UNC if they play their best, but there's also the ten minute in-game stretches when they lose focus and can't seem to come together and put points on the board. The only Syracuse player who's been able to keep his mind on the action through every game has been Nichols, the exception being his own version of the Senior Moment during the Wichita State game. At the opposite end of the spectrum are his teammates, who seem almost universally uninspired through long stretches of gametime - likely the result of a fairly serious string of injuries to starters and a few unmentionable behind-the-scene stumbles (Anyone else want to go home? If you do, please just say so right now... It's too bad Jones couldn't stick around, though - he would have been great over the next couple years. At least there won't be anymore "WHO?" chants. That was getting too annoying to bear much longer).
It's frustrating to watch this team at times - despite the NBA bid being put together by their suddenly dominant small forward - and the current 11-3 record scares me when I look ahead to the powers of the Big East. At the start of this season I would have predicted the Orange to be 13-1 by now, if not undefeated, simply by looking at the talent at Boeheim's disposal. They appear to have everything needed for a long run into the tournament - experienced senior leadership and raw talent from the sophomores and freshmen - but they haven't done what's been needed to win the important games thus far.
When I began writing this post my plan was to follow through on a request from Chicago Chad and give you a rundown on all the Big East teams and how they'll matchup with the Cuse this year. I've since nixed that plan, though, as I don't think it matters who these Syracuse Orange play - if they play their best, they will beat any team in this year's Big East. If they don't, they'll be slaughtered - there's going to be a fine line between success and failure. Instead of writing about Pittsburgh, Georgetown, and UConn, who should be atop the standings in the end, I'm going to list what I believe Syracuse needs to change in order to be a top contender in the conference.
How to Win in the Big East:
1) Get Devo involved.
I know there's something unofficial going on with Devendorf's playing time, especially considering "fan favorite" Andy Rautins has been starting ahead of the team's best guard, so Jimmy B. must have his reasons (and I doubt they involve the Dinosaur Barbecque). I also realize there's a significant portion of the fanbase who are turned off by #23's bravado and seemingly poor attitude (see the specially-cropped photograph that's been circling SU Fan emails) but this team needs his abilities on the floor. Worth noting: In SU's three losses, Devendorf averaged 14.6 minutes and 3 points. In SU's 11 wins, he's at 29.3 and 14. There's something there, whether the haters like it or not - he's an Orangeman, and the team needs him to play if they're going to win these games.
2) Lessen Nichols' load
This could be known as the Kobe Rule, as described by Marc Iavaroni of the Phoenix Suns in Jack McCallum's latest must-read for the NBA fan, :07 Seconds or Less: the more shots a superstar takes during a game, the less involved are his teammates, and the better chance his team loses the contest. In Demetrius' case, he's not taking an excessive number of shots at this point, but he has been trying to play the role of the savior ever since the Notorious Lay-Out. This can be great when a player is lights-out, as he can be at times, but it's terrible for the team if they get too accustomed to waiting for their top scorer to shoot. Nichols has shot the ball 17 times per loss, as opposed to just 13 per win. When the other players pick up some of the offensive slack, it helps the team as a whole (this also relates to #1).
3) Stay healthy.
Really, #3 goes without saying, but it's going to be even more important once the truly physical matchups get underway. If Terrence and Darryl can't stay healthy through the Big East portion of the schedule, the Cuse is guaranteed to lose a few more than usual. Who's going to fill in under the bucket if Roberts stays on the bench with a bad knee? Can you really see Stormin' Gorman matching Big Boy Roy blow-for-blow when Georgetown comes to play? I'm sure his Orange County-esque blond locks will distract the 7-footer for a few plays, but I honestly can't imagine Gorman succeeding for 40 minutes in that effort. The SU training staff needs to be at their best during this year without Arinze - Roberts and Watkins have never been more valuable.
4) Find a jumper for Paul or find another way
Mr. Harris has certainly been entertaining in his first games wearing orange and he's still the conference FOY, but the man truly has no range. He can drive, he can rebound, he can handle the ball, he can energize the crowd - he cannot shoot. The FNP has taken 16 three-point shots this year, only finding net once -- yes, one time. I realize that the other team is leaving him open anytime he has the ball outside the arc, which makes the shot so tempting, but he has to either learn to shoot or learn to pass. When it comes to driving the lane and making something positive happen, he's among the best on the team - there have been several games that Harris has taken over because of his ability to draw fouls or create lay-ups for himself, and he should stick with that particular skillset until he is able to knock down a 19-footer at least 25% of the time.
5) 40 minutes of intensity, every game
This has been the most vexing problem for this team thus far. For some reason, the Orange have moments during games when they simply cannot play with the same tenacity they exhibit when they are at their best. These are the moments in which losses are created, as they've fallen behind by double digits to inferior teams more than once already during the year. I don't know who's responsibility this is - the coaches' or the captains' - but someone has got to get this team ready to play for a full 40 minutes. When they do, they can be among the best in the country. This may have become the Syracuse mantra over the last few years, but it's more true now than ever.
When I look at the talent on this team, it's clear that the Orange have the ability to do all things on a basketball court - I'm actually amazed at how many different ways they can score, always adapting to what the opposition is willing to give them. In the past it seemed the Cuse was limited to a certain set of plays or relied too much on one or two players to carry them to victories. In 2004 Syracuse seemed to have an unstoppable inside-outside combination in the form of McNamazing and Hak. This year's team takes that idea of offensive versatility and jacks it up another level - everyone can score, not just two guys. Whether it be knocking down a trey (four players currently shooting better than 38% from the arc) or utilizing their quickness to get into the lane, Wright, Devo, and Harris have been the catalysts to an offense that can break down any D. The frontcourt has been consistently finding themselves open under the hoop, finishing anything tossed their way (unless they get to the line, of course) - the team has even found a reliable presence in the Center Formerly Known as Stonehands.
The defense has been shaky in some games, but it's also shown some flashes of brilliance - Watkins, Roberts, and Nichols block more shots than any big conference team in the nation, giving the top of the zone the solid backbone we haven't seen since the days of Etan Thomas. Paul Harris gives the team the type of defensive stopper necessary to win big games, while Original Hype Man himself, Stormin' Gorman, can jump-start the intensity with a little recklessness in the lane.
The Cuse have all the parts needed for a quality run through the Big East's regular season - it's just a matter of putting them together. Hopefully they can get started tomorrow night against the Panthers, and Joe Lunardi will have to kick some other team out of his Top 65 come January 10th.
